Quan hệ dài hạn giữa biến động thu và chi ngân sách thực tế so với dự toán ngân sách ở Việt Nam

Abstract

The article analyzes the relationship between actual budget revenue fluctuations compared to estimates and actual budget expenditure fluctuations compared to estimates of about 20 years ago to find a long-term solution to balance the budget. The data used in the article is derived from the state budget revenue and expenditure data of Vietnam in the period of 2003-2020 published through the Ministry of Finance's Portal. The co-link technique is used to test the long-term correlation between budget revenue fluctuations and budget expenditure fluctuations, after which the pulse response is analyzed to better define this relationship. The results of the study show that there exists a link between the actual budget revenue fluctuations compared to the estimate and the actual budget expenditure fluctuations compared to the estimate. Specifically, the fluctuation of budget revenues affects the budget expenditure fluctuations in a favorable way in the first 2 years and then in the opposite direction in year 3 and year 4. This finding leads to an important recommendation that only the budget must be made according to the medium-term framework in a substantive medium-term way, in the long term to solve the state budget imbalance.