Ứng dụng mô hình ARDL đánh giá mối quan hệ vay nợ nước ngoài và tăng trưởng kinh tế tại Việt Nam

Thi Thị Mỹ Duyên1
1 Trường Đại học Bạc Liêu

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Tóm tắt

Mục tiêu của nghiên cứu là phân tích mối quan hệ giữa nợ vay và tăng trưởng kinh tế ở Việt Nam trong giai đoạn 1986 - 2021. Sử dụng mô hình phân phối trễ tự hồi quy (Autoregressive Distributed Lag - ARDL) kết hợp với phương pháp kiểm định đường bao (Bound test) làm cơ sở xác định tác động dài hạn; sau đó, dùng mô hình hiệu chỉnh sai số (ECM) để phân tích tác động ngắn hạn. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy, tồn tại mối quan hệ đồng tích hợp giữa nợ vay và tăng trưởng kinh tế tại Việt Nam. Nợ vay nước ngoài có tác động tích cực đến tăng trưởng kinh tế trong dài hạn và trong ngắn hạn. Qua đó cho thấy, các khoản nợ vay nước ngoài cũng góp phần vào sự phát triển kinh tế của Việt Nam gia đoạn 1986 – 2021. Vì vậy, trong giai đoạn sắp tới, Việt Nam cần tận dụng tốt hơn nữa các khoản viện trợ nước ngoài, cũng như là các khoản vay, tín dụng nước ngoài để thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế, góp phần vào sự phát triển của đất nước trong tương lai.

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