Tác động của du lịch quốc tế đến lượng phát thải CO2 tại Việt Nam
Nội dung chính của bài viết
Tóm tắt
Mục tiêu của nghiên cứu là phân tích tác động của du lịch quốc tế đến lượng phát thải CO2 ở Việt Nam, giai đoạn 1995 - 2019. Sử dụng mô hình phân phối trễ tự hồi quy (Autoregressive Distributed Lag - ARDL) kết hợp với phương pháp kiểm định đường bao (Bound test) làm cơ sở xác định tác động dài hạn, sau đó dùng mô hình hiệu chỉnh sai số (ECM) để phân tích tác động ngắn hạn, kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy tồn tại mối quan hệ dài hạn giữa du lịch quốc tế và lượng phát thải CO2. Du lịch quốc tế có tác động cùng chiều với lượng phát thải CO2 trong dài hạn. Khi lượng khách du lịch quốc tế tăng tác động làm chất lượng môi trường giảm. Ngược lại, trong ngắn hạn lượng khách du lịch quốc tế có tác động ngược chiều với lượng phát thải CO2, khi lượng khách du lịch quốc tế tăng tác động làm chất lượng môi trường được cải thiện. Hệ số sửa lổi (ECT) là -0,246, sự thay đổi về lượng khách du lịch quốc tế ảnh hưởng đến lượng phát thải CO2 được điều chỉnh giảm 24,6% ở giai đoạn tiếp theo để đạt được trạng thái cân bằng trong dài hạn.
Chi tiết bài viết
Từ khóa
Du lịch quốc tế, Phát thải CO2, Việt Nam,, ARDL
Tài liệu tham khảo
Anser, M. K., Yousaf, Z., Nassani, A. A., Abro, M. M. Q., & Zaman, K. (2020). International tourism, social distribution, and environmental Kuznets curve: evidence from a panel of G-7 countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27(3), 2707-2720. doi: 10.1007/s11356-019-07196-2
Balcilar, M., van Eyden, R., Inglesi-Lotz, R., & Gupta, R. (2014). Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in South Africa. Applied Economics, 46(36), 4381-4398. doi: 10.1080/00036846.2014.957445
Balli, E., Sigeze, C., Manga, M., ưBirdir, S., & Birdir, K. (2019). The relationship between tourism, CO2 emissions and economic growth: a case of Mediterranean countries. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 24(3), 219-232. doi: 10.1080/10941665.2018.1557717
Becken, S., & Patterson, M. (2006). Measuring National Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Tourism as a Key Step Towards Achieving Sustainable Tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14(4), 323-338. doi: 10.2167/jost547.0
Bella, G. (2018). Estimating the tourism induced environmental Kuznets curve in France. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 26(12), 2043-2052. doi: 10.1080/09669582.2018.1529768
Ben Jebli, M., Ben Youssef, S., & Apergis, N. (2014). The dynamic linkage between CO2 emissions, economic growth, renewable energy consumption, number of tourist arrivals and trade. University Library of Munich, Germany, 57261. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/57261/
Danish, & Wang, Z. (2018). Dynamic relationship between tourism, economic growth, and environmental quality. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 26(11), 1928-1943. doi: 10.1080/09669582.2018.1526293
Dogan, E., Seker, F., & Bulbul, S. (2017). Investigating the impacts of energy consumption, real GDP, tourism and trade on CO2 emissions by accounting for cross-sectional dependence: A panel study of OECD countries. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(16), 1701-1719. doi: 10.1080/13683500.2015.1119103
Ei Menyari, Y. (2021). The effects of international tourism, electricity consumption, and economic growth on CO2 emissions in North Africa. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(32), 44028-44038. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13818-5
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276. doi: 10.2307/1913236
Gao, J., Xu, W., & Zhang, L. (2021). Tourism, economic growth, and tourism-induced EKC hypothesis: evidence from the Mediterranean region. Empirical Economics, 60(3), 1507-1529. doi: 10.1007/s00181-019-01787-1
Grossman, G. M. (1995). Pollution and growth: what do we know? In I. Goldin & L. A. Winters (Eds.), The Economics of Sustainable Development, 19-46. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511751905.003
Işik, C., Kasımatı, E., & Ongan, S. (2017). Analyzing the causalities between economic growth, financial development, international trade, tourism expenditure and/on the CO2 emissions in Greece. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 12(7), 665-673. doi: 10.1080/15567249.2016.1263251
Jalil, A., Mahmood, T., & Idrees, M. (2013). Tourism–growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests. Economic Modelling, 35, 185-191. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.034
Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551-1580. doi: 10.2307/2938278
Katircioğlu, S. T. (2014). Testing the tourism-induced EKC hypothesis: The case of Singapore. Economic Modelling, 41, 383-391. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.05.028
Koçak, E., Ulucak, R., & Ulucak, Z. Ş. (2020). The impact of tourism developments on CO2 emissions: An advanced panel data estimation. Tourism Management Perspectives, 33, 100611. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2019.100611
Kofi Adom, P., Bekoe, W., Amuakwa-Mensah, F., Mensah, J. T., & Botchway, E. (2012). Carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, industrial structure, and technical efficiency: Empirical evidence from Ghana, Senegal, and Morocco on the causal dynamics. Energy, 47(1), 314-325. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.09.025
Lee, J. W., & Brahmasrene, T. (2013). Investigating the influence of tourism on economic growth and carbon emissions: Evidence from panel analysis of the European Union. Tourism Management, 38, 69-76. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2013.02.016
Leitão, N. C., & Balsalobre-Lorente, D. (2021). The Effects of Tourism, Economic Growth and Renewable Energy on Carbon Dioxide Emissions. In D. Balsalobre-Lorente, O. M. Driha & M. Shahbaz (Eds.), Strategies in Sustainable Tourism, Economic Growth and Clean Energy, 67-87. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59675-0_4
Nepal, R., Indra al Irsyad, M., & Nepal, S. K. (2019). Tourist arrivals, energy consumption and pollutant emissions in a developing economy–implications for sustainable tourism. Tourism Management, 72, 145-154. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.08.025
Paramati, S. R., Alam, M. S., & Chen, C.-F. (2016). The Effects of Tourism on Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: A Comparison between Developed and Developing Economies. Journal of Travel Research, 56(6), 712-724. doi: 10.1177/0047287516667848
Paramati, S. R., Alam, M. S., & Lau, C. K. M. (2018). The effect of tourism investment on tourism development and CO2 emissions: empirical evidence from the EU nations. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 26(9), 1587-1607. doi: 10.1080/09669582.2018.1489398
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Pigram, J. J. (1980). Environmental implications of tourism development. Annals of Tourism Research, 7(4), 554-583. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0160-7383(80)90049-3
Raza, S. A., Sharif, A., Wong, W. K., & Karim, M. Z. A. (2017). Tourism development and environmental degradation in the United States: evidence from wavelet-based analysis. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(16), 1768-1790. doi: 10.1080/13683500.2016.1192587
Sghaier, A., Guizani, A., Ben Jabeur, S., & Nurunnabi, M. (2019). Tourism development, energy consumption and environmental quality in Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco: a trivariate analysis. GeoJournal, 84(3), 593-609. doi: 10.1007/s10708-018-9878-z
Shakouri, B., Khoshnevis Yazdi, S., & Ghorchebigi, E. (2017). Does tourism development promote CO2 emissions? Anatolia, 28(3), 444-452. doi: 10.1080/13032917.2017.1335648
Sharif, A., Afshan, S., & Nisha, N. (2017). Impact of tourism on CO2 emission: evidence from Pakistan. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(4), 408-421. doi: 10.1080/10941665.2016.1273960
Shin, Y., & Pesaran, M. H. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th century: The Ragnar Frish Centennial Symposium, 371-413. Cambridge University Press.
Tang, C. F., & Abosedra, S. (2014). Small sample evidence on the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Lebanon. Current Issues in Tourism, 17(3), 234-246. doi: 10.1080/13683500.2012.732044
Thi, D., Tran, V. Q., & Nguyen, D. T. (2023). The relationship between renewable energy consumption, international tourism, trade openness, innovation and carbon dioxide emissions: international evidence. International Journal of Sustainable Energy, 42(1), 397-416. doi: 10.1080/14786451.2023.2192827
Tisdell, C. (1987). Tourism, the environment and profit. Economic Analysis and Policy, 17(1), 13-30. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0313-5926(87)50009-
World Bank (2022). World Development Indicators. http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source-=World-Development-Indicators (accessed 10 August 2022)
Yazdi, S., Zahra, T., & Nikos, M. (2014). Public healthcare expenditure and environmental quality in Iran. Recent Advances in Applied Economics, 1, 126-134.
Yorucu, V. (2016). Growth impact of CO emissions caused by tourist arrivals in Turkey. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 8(1), 19-37. doi: 10.1108/IJCCSM-12-2014-0148
Balcilar, M., van Eyden, R., Inglesi-Lotz, R., & Gupta, R. (2014). Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in South Africa. Applied Economics, 46(36), 4381-4398. doi: 10.1080/00036846.2014.957445
Balli, E., Sigeze, C., Manga, M., ưBirdir, S., & Birdir, K. (2019). The relationship between tourism, CO2 emissions and economic growth: a case of Mediterranean countries. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 24(3), 219-232. doi: 10.1080/10941665.2018.1557717
Becken, S., & Patterson, M. (2006). Measuring National Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Tourism as a Key Step Towards Achieving Sustainable Tourism. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 14(4), 323-338. doi: 10.2167/jost547.0
Bella, G. (2018). Estimating the tourism induced environmental Kuznets curve in France. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 26(12), 2043-2052. doi: 10.1080/09669582.2018.1529768
Ben Jebli, M., Ben Youssef, S., & Apergis, N. (2014). The dynamic linkage between CO2 emissions, economic growth, renewable energy consumption, number of tourist arrivals and trade. University Library of Munich, Germany, 57261. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/57261/
Danish, & Wang, Z. (2018). Dynamic relationship between tourism, economic growth, and environmental quality. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 26(11), 1928-1943. doi: 10.1080/09669582.2018.1526293
Dogan, E., Seker, F., & Bulbul, S. (2017). Investigating the impacts of energy consumption, real GDP, tourism and trade on CO2 emissions by accounting for cross-sectional dependence: A panel study of OECD countries. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(16), 1701-1719. doi: 10.1080/13683500.2015.1119103
Ei Menyari, Y. (2021). The effects of international tourism, electricity consumption, and economic growth on CO2 emissions in North Africa. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(32), 44028-44038. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-13818-5
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276. doi: 10.2307/1913236
Gao, J., Xu, W., & Zhang, L. (2021). Tourism, economic growth, and tourism-induced EKC hypothesis: evidence from the Mediterranean region. Empirical Economics, 60(3), 1507-1529. doi: 10.1007/s00181-019-01787-1
Grossman, G. M. (1995). Pollution and growth: what do we know? In I. Goldin & L. A. Winters (Eds.), The Economics of Sustainable Development, 19-46. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511751905.003
Işik, C., Kasımatı, E., & Ongan, S. (2017). Analyzing the causalities between economic growth, financial development, international trade, tourism expenditure and/on the CO2 emissions in Greece. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 12(7), 665-673. doi: 10.1080/15567249.2016.1263251
Jalil, A., Mahmood, T., & Idrees, M. (2013). Tourism–growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests. Economic Modelling, 35, 185-191. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.06.034
Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models. Econometrica, 59(6), 1551-1580. doi: 10.2307/2938278
Katircioğlu, S. T. (2014). Testing the tourism-induced EKC hypothesis: The case of Singapore. Economic Modelling, 41, 383-391. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.05.028
Koçak, E., Ulucak, R., & Ulucak, Z. Ş. (2020). The impact of tourism developments on CO2 emissions: An advanced panel data estimation. Tourism Management Perspectives, 33, 100611. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2019.100611
Kofi Adom, P., Bekoe, W., Amuakwa-Mensah, F., Mensah, J. T., & Botchway, E. (2012). Carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, industrial structure, and technical efficiency: Empirical evidence from Ghana, Senegal, and Morocco on the causal dynamics. Energy, 47(1), 314-325. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.09.025
Lee, J. W., & Brahmasrene, T. (2013). Investigating the influence of tourism on economic growth and carbon emissions: Evidence from panel analysis of the European Union. Tourism Management, 38, 69-76. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2013.02.016
Leitão, N. C., & Balsalobre-Lorente, D. (2021). The Effects of Tourism, Economic Growth and Renewable Energy on Carbon Dioxide Emissions. In D. Balsalobre-Lorente, O. M. Driha & M. Shahbaz (Eds.), Strategies in Sustainable Tourism, Economic Growth and Clean Energy, 67-87. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-59675-0_4
Nepal, R., Indra al Irsyad, M., & Nepal, S. K. (2019). Tourist arrivals, energy consumption and pollutant emissions in a developing economy–implications for sustainable tourism. Tourism Management, 72, 145-154. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.08.025
Paramati, S. R., Alam, M. S., & Chen, C.-F. (2016). The Effects of Tourism on Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: A Comparison between Developed and Developing Economies. Journal of Travel Research, 56(6), 712-724. doi: 10.1177/0047287516667848
Paramati, S. R., Alam, M. S., & Lau, C. K. M. (2018). The effect of tourism investment on tourism development and CO2 emissions: empirical evidence from the EU nations. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 26(9), 1587-1607. doi: 10.1080/09669582.2018.1489398
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
Pigram, J. J. (1980). Environmental implications of tourism development. Annals of Tourism Research, 7(4), 554-583. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/0160-7383(80)90049-3
Raza, S. A., Sharif, A., Wong, W. K., & Karim, M. Z. A. (2017). Tourism development and environmental degradation in the United States: evidence from wavelet-based analysis. Current Issues in Tourism, 20(16), 1768-1790. doi: 10.1080/13683500.2016.1192587
Sghaier, A., Guizani, A., Ben Jabeur, S., & Nurunnabi, M. (2019). Tourism development, energy consumption and environmental quality in Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco: a trivariate analysis. GeoJournal, 84(3), 593-609. doi: 10.1007/s10708-018-9878-z
Shakouri, B., Khoshnevis Yazdi, S., & Ghorchebigi, E. (2017). Does tourism development promote CO2 emissions? Anatolia, 28(3), 444-452. doi: 10.1080/13032917.2017.1335648
Sharif, A., Afshan, S., & Nisha, N. (2017). Impact of tourism on CO2 emission: evidence from Pakistan. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(4), 408-421. doi: 10.1080/10941665.2016.1273960
Shin, Y., & Pesaran, M. H. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th century: The Ragnar Frish Centennial Symposium, 371-413. Cambridge University Press.
Tang, C. F., & Abosedra, S. (2014). Small sample evidence on the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Lebanon. Current Issues in Tourism, 17(3), 234-246. doi: 10.1080/13683500.2012.732044
Thi, D., Tran, V. Q., & Nguyen, D. T. (2023). The relationship between renewable energy consumption, international tourism, trade openness, innovation and carbon dioxide emissions: international evidence. International Journal of Sustainable Energy, 42(1), 397-416. doi: 10.1080/14786451.2023.2192827
Tisdell, C. (1987). Tourism, the environment and profit. Economic Analysis and Policy, 17(1), 13-30. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0313-5926(87)50009-
World Bank (2022). World Development Indicators. http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source-=World-Development-Indicators (accessed 10 August 2022)
Yazdi, S., Zahra, T., & Nikos, M. (2014). Public healthcare expenditure and environmental quality in Iran. Recent Advances in Applied Economics, 1, 126-134.
Yorucu, V. (2016). Growth impact of CO emissions caused by tourist arrivals in Turkey. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 8(1), 19-37. doi: 10.1108/IJCCSM-12-2014-0148
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