Tương tác giữa FDI và kinh tế ngầm đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại các quốc gia ASEAN

Nguyễn Thị Mỹ Linh1
1 Trường Đại học Tài chính Marketing

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Bài viết đánh giá tác động của đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài (FDI), kinh tế ngầm và xem xét sự tương tác của FDI với kinh tế ngầm đến tăng trưởng kinh tế, trên cơ sở thực nghiệm mô hình nghiên cứu tại các nước ASEAN, kết quả nghiên cứu là cơ sở để đề xuất các khuyến nghị thu hút vốn FDI hiệu quả nhằm phát huy thế mạnh của nguồn vốn này trong bối cảnh các nước có tồn tại kinh tế ngầm. Điểm mới của nghiên cứu là có xem xét tác động tương tác của FDI và kinh tế ngầm đến tăng trưởng kinh tế kết hợp đánh giá tác động của các biến kiểm soát như: đô la hóa, tăng trưởng dân số, chi tiêu chính phủ, chất lượng thể chế. Sau khi thực hiện các ước lượng cơ bản Pooled OLS, FEM, REM, tác giả sử dụng phương pháp hồi qui dữ liệu bảng GMM với dữ liệu thứ cấp giai đoạn 2002-2019, giai đoạn kinh tế ổn định trước khi xuất hiện Covid-19, được thu thập từ tổ chức Ngân hàng Thế giới, Quỹ Tiền tệ Quốc tế, Tổng cục thống kê, Bộ Tài chính,… Kết quả nghiên cứu khẳng định chiều tác động của FDI, kinh tế ngầm và tương tác của chúng đến tăng trưởng kinh tế cũng như các yếu tố vĩ mô khác. Cuối cùng, nghiên cứu đề xuất các khuyến nghị chính sách nhằm phát huy hơn nữa những lợi ích của FDI đối với tăng trưởng kinh tế, đặc biệt là trong điều kiện các quốc gia có tồn tại nền kinh tế ngầm.

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