Impact evaluation of policies to respond to Covid-19 on Vietnam’s economy
Nội dung chính của bài viết
Tóm tắt
This study aims to compare the economic trade-offs in the choice of wholly social isolation and partial social isolation policies by applying the TERM (The Enormous Regional Model) for Vietnam with the assumption of changes in Average Propensity Consumption (APCs) across the country (corresponding to the situation of wholly social isolation) and the change of APC across each region (corresponding to the situation of partial social isolation). After that, the study will compare the results of changes in basic economic indicators in each region according to each APC change scenario of (1) the whole country, (2) the North, (3) the Central, (4) the Southeast, (5) the Mekong Delta. Economic indicators include real GDP and expenditure components of GDP, labor and consumer price index. The study results show that the trade-off of a reduced APC shock across the country is greater than that of a decrease in APC in each region. We can see more clearly that social distancing across the country can have a significantly heavier impact on the economy than social distancing policies by region and locality. The TERM model also shows that APC declines across the country often affect regions where staples are traded domestically rather than those with export strengths.
Chi tiết bài viết
Từ khóa
Computable general equilibrium, Covid-19, Social isolation policies, TERM
Tài liệu tham khảo
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Giesecke, J. A., Burns, W. J., Barrett, A., Bayrak, E., Rose, A. Z., Slovic, P., & Suher, M. (2012). Assessment of the regional economic impacts of catastrophic events: CGE analysis of resource loss and behavioral effects of an RDD attack scenario. Risk Analysis, 32(4), 583–600. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01567
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Haddad, E. A. (1999). Regional inequality and structural changes: Lessons from the Brazilian economy. Ashgate
Haddad, E. A., & Hewings, G. J. D. (2005). Market imperfections in a Spatial Economy: Some experimental results. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 45(2-3), 476–496. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2004.12.016
Haddad, E. A., & Teixeira, E. (2015). Economic impacts of natural disasters in megacities: The case of floods in São Paulo, Brazil. Habitat International, 45, 106–113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint. 2014.06.023
Haung, M. C., & Hosoe, N. (2016). Computable general equilibrium assessment of a compound disaster in Northern Taiwan. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 28(2), 89–106. https://doi.org/10.1111/rurd.12047
Horridge, M., Madden, J., & Whittwer, G. (2005). The impact of the 2002-2003 drought on Australia. Journal of Policy Modeling, 27(3), 285–308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2005.01.008
Kajitani, Y., & Tatano, H. (2018). Applicability of a spatial computable general equilibrium model to assess the short-term economic impact of natural disasters. Economic Systems Research, 30(3), 289–312. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2017.1369010
Kunimitsu, Y. (2018). Effects of restoration measures from the east Japan earthquake in the Iwate coastal area: Application of a DSGE model. Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 2(2), 317–335. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41685-017-0055-z
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Nassios, J., & Giesecke, J. A. (2018). Informing ex ante event studies with macro-econometric evidence on the structural and policy impacts of terrorism. Risk Analysis, 38(4), 804–825. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12874
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Ntombela, S., Nyhodo, B., Ngqangweni, S., Phahlane, H., & Lubinga, M. (2017). Economywide effects of drought on South African agriculture: A computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, 9(3), 46–56. https://doi.org/10.5897/JDAE2016.0769
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