Application of artificial neural network to forecast inflation: a case study of Vietnam

Pham Thi Thanh Xuan1, Chu Thi Thanh Trang1, Nguyen Tuan Duy1, Bui Hong Trang1, Nguyen Thi Bao Ngoc1
1 University of Finance – Marketing

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Abstract

This study investigates the power of artificial neural network (ANN) with back propagation as forecasting tools for monthly inflation rate for Vietnam. Monthly inflation data from 2000 to 2018 is used for training, valide and forecast. The findings show that the actual and predicted inflation are relatively close to each other. This thus confirms the literature that our proposed ANN model is efficient and reliable. In addition, among considerable factors, money supply appears to be the main determinant in forecasting the inflation rate in Vietnam.

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References

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