Mối quan hệ giữa phát triển thị trường bảo hiểm và tăng trưởng kinh tế ở Việt Nam
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Tóm tắt
Bài nghiên cứu được thực hiện nhằm xác định mối quan hệ giữa phát triển thị trường bảo hiểm và tăng trưởng kinh tế ở Việt Nam giai đoạn 1996-2017. Bằng cách sử dụng mô hình phân phối trễ tự hồi quy – ARDL, kết quả nghiên cứu tìm thấy tác động tích cực của phát triển thị trường bảo hiểm đến tăng trưởng kinh tế cả trong ngắn hạn và dài hạn. Kết quả này ủng hộ trường phái Supply- leading (SLH). Bên cạnh đó, mức độ và tốc độ tác động của phát triển thị trường bảo hiểm nhân thọ và thị trường bảo hiểm phi nhân thọ đến tăng trưởng kinh tế có sự khác biệt. Cụ thể thị trường bảo hiểm phi nhân thọ có tác động nhiều hơn đối với tăng trưởng kinh tế, tuy nhiên, sự thay đổi trong thị trường bảo hiểm nhân thọ lại có tác động đến tăng trưởng kinh tế nhanh hơn so với bảo hiểm phi nhân thọ trong dài hạn.
Chi tiết bài viết
Từ khóa
Phát triển thị trường bảo hiểm, Tăng trưởng kinh tế
Tài liệu tham khảo
Alhassan, A. L., & Fiador, V. (2014). Insurance-growth nexus in Ghana: An autoregressive distributed lag bounds cointegration approach. Review of Development Finance, 4(2), 83-96.
Boon, T. K. (2005). Do Commercial banks, stock market and insurance market promote economic growth?
An analysis of the Singapore Economy. Nanyang Technological University.
Chang, T., Cheng, S. C., Pan, G., & Wu, T. P. (2013). Does globalization affect the insurance markets?
Bootstrap panel Granger causality test. Economic Modelling, 33, 254-260.
Cristea, M., Marcu, N., & Cârstina, S. (2014). The relationship between insurance and economic growth in Romania compared to the main results in Europe–a theoretical and empirical analysis. Procedia.
DꞌArcy, S., Gorvett, R., 2004. The use of dynamic financial analysis to determine whether an optimal growth rate exists for a property-liability insurer. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 71 (4): 583- 616.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
Economics and Finance, 8, 226-235. Liu, G. C., & Lee, C. C. (2014). Insurance activities and banking credit causal nexus: evidence from China. Applied Economics Letters, 21(9), 626-630.
Esho, N., Kirievsky, A., Ward, D., & Zurbruegg, R. (2004). Law and the determinants of property‐casualty insurance. Journal of risk and Insurance, 71(2), 265-283.
Granger, C. W. (1988). Some recent development in a concept of causality. Journal of econometrics, 39(1-
2), 199-211.
Gujarati, D., 1995. Basic Econometrics. Mcgraw-Hill, New York.
Guochen, P., Wei, S.C., 2012. The relationship between insurance development and economic growth: A cross- region study for China. China International Conference on Insurance and Risk Management, July 18-21,2012, Qingdao, China.
Han, L., Li, D., Moshirian, F., Tian, Y., 2010. Insurance development and economic growth. Geneva Papers 35, 183– 199, http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/ gpp.2010.4
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
Kugler, M., & Ofoghi, R. (2005, September). Does insurance promote economic growth? Evidence from the UK. In Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference (Vol. 8).
Lee, C. C., Huang, W. L., & Yin, C. H. (2013). The dynamic interactions among the stock, bond and insurance markets. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 26, 28-52.
Lee, C. C, Lee, C. C. and Chiu, Y. B. (2013). The Link between Life Insurance Activities and Economic Growth: Some New Evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 405- 427.
Lee, C. C. (2011). Does Insurance Matter for Growth: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries. The B. E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 1-26.
Lee, C. C. and Chiu, Y.B. (2012). The Impact of Real Income on Insurance Penetration: Evidence from Panel Data. International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 246-260.
Lee, S. J., Kwon, S. I., Chung, S.Y. (2010). Determinants of Household Demand for Insurance: The Case of Korea. Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Issues and Practice, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 82-91.
Liu, G. C. and Lee, C. C. (2014). Insurance Activities and Banking Credit Causal Nexus: Evidence from China. Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 21, No. 9, pp. 626-630.
Pan, G., & Su, C. (2012, July). The relationship between insurance development and economic growth: a cross-region study for China. In China International Conference on Insurance and Risk Management.
Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.J., 2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J. Appl.
Econ. 16, 289–326.
Pradhan, R.P., Arvin, M. B., Norman, N.R., 2015. Insurance development and the finance-growth nexus: Evidence from 34 OECD countries. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 31 (1):1-22.
Ward, D. and Zurbruegg, R. (2000). Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from OECD Countries. Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 67, No. 4, pp. 489-506.
Boon, T. K. (2005). Do Commercial banks, stock market and insurance market promote economic growth?
An analysis of the Singapore Economy. Nanyang Technological University.
Chang, T., Cheng, S. C., Pan, G., & Wu, T. P. (2013). Does globalization affect the insurance markets?
Bootstrap panel Granger causality test. Economic Modelling, 33, 254-260.
Cristea, M., Marcu, N., & Cârstina, S. (2014). The relationship between insurance and economic growth in Romania compared to the main results in Europe–a theoretical and empirical analysis. Procedia.
DꞌArcy, S., Gorvett, R., 2004. The use of dynamic financial analysis to determine whether an optimal growth rate exists for a property-liability insurer. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 71 (4): 583- 616.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
Economics and Finance, 8, 226-235. Liu, G. C., & Lee, C. C. (2014). Insurance activities and banking credit causal nexus: evidence from China. Applied Economics Letters, 21(9), 626-630.
Esho, N., Kirievsky, A., Ward, D., & Zurbruegg, R. (2004). Law and the determinants of property‐casualty insurance. Journal of risk and Insurance, 71(2), 265-283.
Granger, C. W. (1988). Some recent development in a concept of causality. Journal of econometrics, 39(1-
2), 199-211.
Gujarati, D., 1995. Basic Econometrics. Mcgraw-Hill, New York.
Guochen, P., Wei, S.C., 2012. The relationship between insurance development and economic growth: A cross- region study for China. China International Conference on Insurance and Risk Management, July 18-21,2012, Qingdao, China.
Han, L., Li, D., Moshirian, F., Tian, Y., 2010. Insurance development and economic growth. Geneva Papers 35, 183– 199, http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/ gpp.2010.4
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of economic dynamics and control, 12(2-3), 231-254.
Kugler, M., & Ofoghi, R. (2005, September). Does insurance promote economic growth? Evidence from the UK. In Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference (Vol. 8).
Lee, C. C., Huang, W. L., & Yin, C. H. (2013). The dynamic interactions among the stock, bond and insurance markets. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 26, 28-52.
Lee, C. C, Lee, C. C. and Chiu, Y. B. (2013). The Link between Life Insurance Activities and Economic Growth: Some New Evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 405- 427.
Lee, C. C. (2011). Does Insurance Matter for Growth: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries. The B. E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 1-26.
Lee, C. C. and Chiu, Y.B. (2012). The Impact of Real Income on Insurance Penetration: Evidence from Panel Data. International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 246-260.
Lee, S. J., Kwon, S. I., Chung, S.Y. (2010). Determinants of Household Demand for Insurance: The Case of Korea. Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Issues and Practice, Vol. 35, No. 1, pp. 82-91.
Liu, G. C. and Lee, C. C. (2014). Insurance Activities and Banking Credit Causal Nexus: Evidence from China. Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 21, No. 9, pp. 626-630.
Pan, G., & Su, C. (2012, July). The relationship between insurance development and economic growth: a cross-region study for China. In China International Conference on Insurance and Risk Management.
Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.J., 2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J. Appl.
Econ. 16, 289–326.
Pradhan, R.P., Arvin, M. B., Norman, N.R., 2015. Insurance development and the finance-growth nexus: Evidence from 34 OECD countries. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 31 (1):1-22.
Ward, D. and Zurbruegg, R. (2000). Does Insurance Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from OECD Countries. Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 67, No. 4, pp. 489-506.
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