Ảnh hưởng của vốn xã hội và biến đổi khí hậu đến di cư ở khu vực nông thôn Việt Nam
Nội dung chính của bài viết
Tóm tắt
Di cư và dịch chuyển lao động là một chủ đề lớn trong nghiên cứu trên thế giới và Việt Nam. Trong đó, di cư từ các vùng nông thôn ở Việt Nam trở thành một xu thế sinh kế quan trọng của các hộ nông thôn. Mục tiêu của bài nghiên cứu này nhóm tác giả xem xét ảnh hưởng của biến đổi khí hậu trong mối quan hệ tương tác với các nguồn vốn sinh kế đến quyết định di cư của hộ. Dữ liệu trong bài nghiên cứu này được sử dụng từ bộ dữ liệu nguồn lực nông hộ (VARHS) với tiếp cận của mô hình hồi quy tobit dữ liệu bảng. Các kết quả cho thấy, ảnh hưởng rõ ràng và chắc chắn của biến đổi khí hậu trực tiếp thúc đẩy di cư của các nông hộ. Đồng thời, các nguồn vốn sinh kế cũng có tác động đáng kể, đặc biệt trong các bối cảnh biến đổi khí hậu. Trong đó, vốn xã hội với đặc điểm là mối quan hệ kết nối với những người đã di cư là yếu tố tác động lớn nhất đến quyết định di cư của nông hộ. Từ đó, nhóm tác giả đưa ra một số hàm ý chính sách nhằm ổn định trạng thái di cư của nông hộ Việt Nam
Chi tiết bài viết
Từ khóa
Biến đổi khí hậu, Di cư, Nông hộ Việt Nam, Sinh kế bền vững
Tài liệu tham khảo
Alemayehu, M., Beuving, J., & Ruben, R. (2018). Risk Preferences and Farmers’ Livelihood Strategies: A Case Study from Eastern Ethiopia. Journal of International Development, 30(8), 1369–1391. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3341
Atamanov, A., & Van Den Berg, M. (2012a). Rural Nonfarm Activities in Central Asia: A Regional Analysis of Magnitude, Structure, Evolution and Drivers in the Kyrgyz Republic. Europe-Asia Studies, 64(2), 349–368. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2011.642581
Atamanov, A., & Van Den Berg, M. (2012b). International labour migration and local rural activities in the Kyrgyz Republic: Determinants and trade-offs. Central Asian Survey, 31(2), 119–136. https://doi.org/10.1080/02634937.2012.671992
Brown, O. (2008). Migration and climate change. https://www.un-ilibrary.org/docserver/fulltext/9789213630235/26de4416-en.pdf
Cai, R., Esipova, N., Oppenheimer, M., & Feng, S. (2014). International migration desires related to subjective well-being. IZA Journal of Migration, 3(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1186/2193-9039-3-8
Carrico, A. R., & Donato, K. (2019). Extreme weather and migration: Evidence from Bangladesh. Population and Environment, 41(1), 1–31. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s11111-019-00322-9
Cerrutti, M., & Massey, D. S. (2001). On the auspices of female migration from Mexico to the United States. Demography, 38(2), 187-200.
Dang, A., Goldstein, S., & McNally, J. (1997). Internal Migration and Development in Vietnam. International Migration Review, 31(2), 312–337. https://doi.org/10.1177/019791839703100203
Davis, J., & Brazil, N. (2016). Migration, Remittances and Nutrition Outcomes of Left-Behind Children: A National-Level Quantitative Assessment of Guatemala. PLoS One, 11(3), 1-17. https://doi.org/ 10.1371/journal.pone.0152089
De Brauw, A. (2020). Seasonal migration and agricultural production in Vietnam. In Migration, Transfers and Economic Decision Making among Agricultural Households (pp. 114-139). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003061229
De Brauw, A., & Harigaya, T. (2007). Seasonal migration and improving living standards in Vietnam. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 89(2), 430–447. https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1467-8276.2006.00989.X
DFID. (1999). Sustainable Livelihoods Guidance Sheets, section 2.1. Department for International Development (DFID). Departement for International Development, 26. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj
Fussell, E., & Massey, D. S. (2004). The limits to cumulative causation: International migration from Mexican urban areas. Demography, 41(1), 151–171. https://doi.org/10.1353/DEM.2004.0003
Gioli, G., Khan, T., Bisht, S., & Scheffran, J. (2014). Migration as an Adaptation Strategy and its Gendered Implications: A Case Study From the Upper Indus Basin. Mountain Research and Development, 34(3), 255–265.
Hare, D. (1999). ‘Push’versus ‘pull’factors in migration outflows and returns: Determinants of migration status and spell duration among China's rural population. The Journal of Development Studies, 35(3), 45-72.
Jagger, P., Shively, G., & Arinaitwe, A. (2012). Circular migration, small-scale logging, and household livelihoods in Uganda. Population and Environment, 34(2), 235–256. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-011-0155-z
Koubi, V., Spilker, G., Schaffer, L., & Böhmelt, T. (2016). The role of environmental perceptions in migration decision-making: evidence from both migrants and non-migrants in five developing countries. Population and Environment, 38(2), 134–163. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11111-016-0258-7
Kuang, F., Jin, J., He, R., Wan, X., & Ning, J. (2019). Influence of livelihood capital on adaptation strategies: Evidence from rural households in Wushen Banner, China. Land Use Policy, 89(8), 104228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104228
Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47–57. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063
Lindstrom, D. P., & Lauster, N. (2001). Local Economic Opportunity and the Competing Risks of Internal and US Migration in Zacatecas, Mexico 1. International migration review, 35(4), 1232-1256.
Long, N., Ye, J., & Wang, Y. (Eds.). (2010). Rural Transformations and Development China in Context. The Everyday Lives of Policies, 395. https://doi.org/10.1080/00472336.2011.610629
Ma, X., Heerink, N., van Ierland, E., & Shi, X. (2016). Land tenure insecurity and rural‐urban migration in rural China. Papers in Regional Science, 95(2), 383-406.
Mariwah, S., Evans, R., & Antwi, K. B. (2019). Gendered and generational tensions in increased land commercialisation: Rural livelihood diversification, changing land use, and food security in Ghana's Brong‐Ahafo region. Geo: Geography and Environment, 6(1), e00073. https://doi.org/ 10.1002/geo2.73
Martin, M., Billah, M., Siddiqui, T., Abrar, C., Black, R., & Kniveton, D. (2014). Climate-related migration in rural Bangladesh: a behavioural model. Population and Environment, 36(1), 85–110. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s11111-014-0207-2
McDonald, J., & Moffitt, R. (1980). The Uses of Tobit Analysis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 62(2), 318-21. https://doi.org/10.2307/1924766
Mincer, J., & Jovanovic, B. (1979). Labor Mobility and Wages (No. 0357). National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Mincer, J., & Jovanovic, B. (1981). Labor Mobility and Wages (pp. 21-64). National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. https://nyuscholars.nyu.edu/en/publications/labor-mobility-and-wages
Mistri, A., & Das, B. (2014). Assets disparities among social groups: A cross sectional analysis of Census 2011. Social Change, 44(1), 1-20.. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049085713514673
Nawrotzki, R. J., Hunter, L. M., & Dickinson, T. W. (2012). Rural livelihoods and access to natural capital: Differences between migrants and non-migrants in Madagascar. Demographic Research, 26, 661-700. https://doi.org/ 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.24
Nawrotzki, R. J., Runfola, D. M., Hunter, L. M., & Riosmena, F. (2016). Domestic and International Climate Migration from Rural Mexico. Human Ecology, 44(6), 687–699. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s10745-016-9859-0
Nguyen, D. L., Grote, U., & Nguyen, T. T. (2019). Migration, crop production and non-farm labor diversification in rural Vietnam. Economic Analysis and Policy, 63(C), 175–187. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2019.06.003
Nguyen, T. T., Nguyen, T. T., & Grote, U. (2020). Weather shocks, credit and production efficiency of rice farmers in Vietnam (No. wp-017). Leibniz Universitaet Hannover, Institute of Development and Agricultural Economics, Project TVSEP.
Peterson, T. C., & Manton, M. J. (2008). Monitoring changes in climate extremes: A tale of international collaboration. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89(9), 1266–1271. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2501.1
Shinbrot, X. A., Jones, K. W., Rivera-Castañeda, A., López-Báez, W., & Ojima, D. S. (2019). Smallholder Farmer Adoption of Climate-Related Adaptation Strategies: The Importance of Vulnerability Context, Livelihood Assets, and Climate Perceptions. Environmental Management, 63(5), 583–595. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s00267-019-01152-z
Su, F., Saikia, U., & Hay, I. (2018). Relationships between livelihood risks and livelihood capitals: A case study in Shiyang River Basin, China. Sustainability (Switzerland), 10(2), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10020509
Tan, M., Li, X., Yan, J., Xin, L., & Sun, L. (2016). Length of stay in urban areas of circular migrants from the mountainous areas in China. Journal of Mountain Science, 13(5), 947–956. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s11629-015-3477-y
Tan, S., Heerink, N., & Qu, F. (2006). Land fragmentation and its driving forces in China. Land use policy, 23(3), 272-285.
Torres, B., Günter, S., Acevedo-Cabra, R., & Knoke, T. (2018). Livelihood strategies, ethnicity and rural income: The case of migrant settlers and indigenous populations in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Forest Policy and Economics, 86(C), 22–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2017.10.011
Valtonen, K. (1996). Bread and tea: A study of the integration of low-income immigrants from other Caribbean territories into Trinidad: IMR IMR. The International Migration Review, 30(4), 995–1019. https://doi.org/10.1177/019791839603000406
Winters, P., Corral, L., & Gordillo, G. (2001). Rural Livelihood Strategies and Social Capital in Latin America: Implications for Rural Development Projects. Working Paper Series in Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2001(6), 1–28.
Xu, D., Deng, X., Guo, S., & Liu, S. (2019). Sensitivity of Livelihood Strategy to Livelihood Capital: An Empirical Investigation Using Nationally Representative Survey Data from Rural China. Social Indicators Research, 144(1), 113–131. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-018-2037-6
Xu, D., Liu, E., Wang, X., Tang, H., & Liu, S. (2018). Rural households’ livelihood capital, risk perception, and willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance: evidence from southwestern China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(7). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15071319
Xu, D., Ma, Z., Deng, X., Liu, Y., Huang, K., Zhou, W., & Yong, Z. (2020). Relationships between land management scale and livelihood strategy selection of rural households in china from the perspective of family life cycle. Land, 9(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.3390/land9010011
Xu, D., Zhang, J., Xie, F., Liu, S., Cao, M., & Liu, E. (2015). Influential factors in employment location selection based on “push-pull” migration theory--a case study in Three Gorges Reservoir area in China. Journal of Mountain Science, 12(6), 1562–1581. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-014-3371-z
Yulmardi, Y., Amir, A., & Junaidi, J. (2020). Household livelihoods strategies of descendants of transmigrants in Jambi Province, Indonesia. International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology, 29(3), 6118–6133.
Zhang, B., Druijven, P., & Strijker, D. (2017). Does ethnic identity influence migrants’ settlement intentions? Evidence from three cities in Gansu Province, Northwest China. Habitat International, 69(2017), 94–103. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2017.09.003
Atamanov, A., & Van Den Berg, M. (2012a). Rural Nonfarm Activities in Central Asia: A Regional Analysis of Magnitude, Structure, Evolution and Drivers in the Kyrgyz Republic. Europe-Asia Studies, 64(2), 349–368. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2011.642581
Atamanov, A., & Van Den Berg, M. (2012b). International labour migration and local rural activities in the Kyrgyz Republic: Determinants and trade-offs. Central Asian Survey, 31(2), 119–136. https://doi.org/10.1080/02634937.2012.671992
Brown, O. (2008). Migration and climate change. https://www.un-ilibrary.org/docserver/fulltext/9789213630235/26de4416-en.pdf
Cai, R., Esipova, N., Oppenheimer, M., & Feng, S. (2014). International migration desires related to subjective well-being. IZA Journal of Migration, 3(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1186/2193-9039-3-8
Carrico, A. R., & Donato, K. (2019). Extreme weather and migration: Evidence from Bangladesh. Population and Environment, 41(1), 1–31. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s11111-019-00322-9
Cerrutti, M., & Massey, D. S. (2001). On the auspices of female migration from Mexico to the United States. Demography, 38(2), 187-200.
Dang, A., Goldstein, S., & McNally, J. (1997). Internal Migration and Development in Vietnam. International Migration Review, 31(2), 312–337. https://doi.org/10.1177/019791839703100203
Davis, J., & Brazil, N. (2016). Migration, Remittances and Nutrition Outcomes of Left-Behind Children: A National-Level Quantitative Assessment of Guatemala. PLoS One, 11(3), 1-17. https://doi.org/ 10.1371/journal.pone.0152089
De Brauw, A. (2020). Seasonal migration and agricultural production in Vietnam. In Migration, Transfers and Economic Decision Making among Agricultural Households (pp. 114-139). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003061229
De Brauw, A., & Harigaya, T. (2007). Seasonal migration and improving living standards in Vietnam. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 89(2), 430–447. https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1467-8276.2006.00989.X
DFID. (1999). Sustainable Livelihoods Guidance Sheets, section 2.1. Department for International Development (DFID). Departement for International Development, 26. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj
Fussell, E., & Massey, D. S. (2004). The limits to cumulative causation: International migration from Mexican urban areas. Demography, 41(1), 151–171. https://doi.org/10.1353/DEM.2004.0003
Gioli, G., Khan, T., Bisht, S., & Scheffran, J. (2014). Migration as an Adaptation Strategy and its Gendered Implications: A Case Study From the Upper Indus Basin. Mountain Research and Development, 34(3), 255–265.
Hare, D. (1999). ‘Push’versus ‘pull’factors in migration outflows and returns: Determinants of migration status and spell duration among China's rural population. The Journal of Development Studies, 35(3), 45-72.
Jagger, P., Shively, G., & Arinaitwe, A. (2012). Circular migration, small-scale logging, and household livelihoods in Uganda. Population and Environment, 34(2), 235–256. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-011-0155-z
Koubi, V., Spilker, G., Schaffer, L., & Böhmelt, T. (2016). The role of environmental perceptions in migration decision-making: evidence from both migrants and non-migrants in five developing countries. Population and Environment, 38(2), 134–163. https://doi.org/10.1007/S11111-016-0258-7
Kuang, F., Jin, J., He, R., Wan, X., & Ning, J. (2019). Influence of livelihood capital on adaptation strategies: Evidence from rural households in Wushen Banner, China. Land Use Policy, 89(8), 104228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104228
Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47–57. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063
Lindstrom, D. P., & Lauster, N. (2001). Local Economic Opportunity and the Competing Risks of Internal and US Migration in Zacatecas, Mexico 1. International migration review, 35(4), 1232-1256.
Long, N., Ye, J., & Wang, Y. (Eds.). (2010). Rural Transformations and Development China in Context. The Everyday Lives of Policies, 395. https://doi.org/10.1080/00472336.2011.610629
Ma, X., Heerink, N., van Ierland, E., & Shi, X. (2016). Land tenure insecurity and rural‐urban migration in rural China. Papers in Regional Science, 95(2), 383-406.
Mariwah, S., Evans, R., & Antwi, K. B. (2019). Gendered and generational tensions in increased land commercialisation: Rural livelihood diversification, changing land use, and food security in Ghana's Brong‐Ahafo region. Geo: Geography and Environment, 6(1), e00073. https://doi.org/ 10.1002/geo2.73
Martin, M., Billah, M., Siddiqui, T., Abrar, C., Black, R., & Kniveton, D. (2014). Climate-related migration in rural Bangladesh: a behavioural model. Population and Environment, 36(1), 85–110. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s11111-014-0207-2
McDonald, J., & Moffitt, R. (1980). The Uses of Tobit Analysis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 62(2), 318-21. https://doi.org/10.2307/1924766
Mincer, J., & Jovanovic, B. (1979). Labor Mobility and Wages (No. 0357). National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Mincer, J., & Jovanovic, B. (1981). Labor Mobility and Wages (pp. 21-64). National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. https://nyuscholars.nyu.edu/en/publications/labor-mobility-and-wages
Mistri, A., & Das, B. (2014). Assets disparities among social groups: A cross sectional analysis of Census 2011. Social Change, 44(1), 1-20.. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049085713514673
Nawrotzki, R. J., Hunter, L. M., & Dickinson, T. W. (2012). Rural livelihoods and access to natural capital: Differences between migrants and non-migrants in Madagascar. Demographic Research, 26, 661-700. https://doi.org/ 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.24
Nawrotzki, R. J., Runfola, D. M., Hunter, L. M., & Riosmena, F. (2016). Domestic and International Climate Migration from Rural Mexico. Human Ecology, 44(6), 687–699. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s10745-016-9859-0
Nguyen, D. L., Grote, U., & Nguyen, T. T. (2019). Migration, crop production and non-farm labor diversification in rural Vietnam. Economic Analysis and Policy, 63(C), 175–187. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2019.06.003
Nguyen, T. T., Nguyen, T. T., & Grote, U. (2020). Weather shocks, credit and production efficiency of rice farmers in Vietnam (No. wp-017). Leibniz Universitaet Hannover, Institute of Development and Agricultural Economics, Project TVSEP.
Peterson, T. C., & Manton, M. J. (2008). Monitoring changes in climate extremes: A tale of international collaboration. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89(9), 1266–1271. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2501.1
Shinbrot, X. A., Jones, K. W., Rivera-Castañeda, A., López-Báez, W., & Ojima, D. S. (2019). Smallholder Farmer Adoption of Climate-Related Adaptation Strategies: The Importance of Vulnerability Context, Livelihood Assets, and Climate Perceptions. Environmental Management, 63(5), 583–595. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s00267-019-01152-z
Su, F., Saikia, U., & Hay, I. (2018). Relationships between livelihood risks and livelihood capitals: A case study in Shiyang River Basin, China. Sustainability (Switzerland), 10(2), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10020509
Tan, M., Li, X., Yan, J., Xin, L., & Sun, L. (2016). Length of stay in urban areas of circular migrants from the mountainous areas in China. Journal of Mountain Science, 13(5), 947–956. https://doi.org/ 10.1007/s11629-015-3477-y
Tan, S., Heerink, N., & Qu, F. (2006). Land fragmentation and its driving forces in China. Land use policy, 23(3), 272-285.
Torres, B., Günter, S., Acevedo-Cabra, R., & Knoke, T. (2018). Livelihood strategies, ethnicity and rural income: The case of migrant settlers and indigenous populations in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Forest Policy and Economics, 86(C), 22–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2017.10.011
Valtonen, K. (1996). Bread and tea: A study of the integration of low-income immigrants from other Caribbean territories into Trinidad: IMR IMR. The International Migration Review, 30(4), 995–1019. https://doi.org/10.1177/019791839603000406
Winters, P., Corral, L., & Gordillo, G. (2001). Rural Livelihood Strategies and Social Capital in Latin America: Implications for Rural Development Projects. Working Paper Series in Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2001(6), 1–28.
Xu, D., Deng, X., Guo, S., & Liu, S. (2019). Sensitivity of Livelihood Strategy to Livelihood Capital: An Empirical Investigation Using Nationally Representative Survey Data from Rural China. Social Indicators Research, 144(1), 113–131. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-018-2037-6
Xu, D., Liu, E., Wang, X., Tang, H., & Liu, S. (2018). Rural households’ livelihood capital, risk perception, and willingness to purchase earthquake disaster insurance: evidence from southwestern China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(7). https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15071319
Xu, D., Ma, Z., Deng, X., Liu, Y., Huang, K., Zhou, W., & Yong, Z. (2020). Relationships between land management scale and livelihood strategy selection of rural households in china from the perspective of family life cycle. Land, 9(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.3390/land9010011
Xu, D., Zhang, J., Xie, F., Liu, S., Cao, M., & Liu, E. (2015). Influential factors in employment location selection based on “push-pull” migration theory--a case study in Three Gorges Reservoir area in China. Journal of Mountain Science, 12(6), 1562–1581. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-014-3371-z
Yulmardi, Y., Amir, A., & Junaidi, J. (2020). Household livelihoods strategies of descendants of transmigrants in Jambi Province, Indonesia. International Journal of Advanced Science and Technology, 29(3), 6118–6133.
Zhang, B., Druijven, P., & Strijker, D. (2017). Does ethnic identity influence migrants’ settlement intentions? Evidence from three cities in Gansu Province, Northwest China. Habitat International, 69(2017), 94–103. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2017.09.003
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