Liệu biến đổi khí hậu ảnh hưởng trực tiếp đến quyết định di cư? Bằng chứng thực nghiệm tại các quốc gia Đông Nam Á
Nội dung chính của bài viết
Tóm tắt
Di cư là trở thành mối quan tâm lớn tại các quốc gia ASEAN do những tác động trực tiếp đến cuộc sống và các vấn đề kinh tế xã hội của người dân. Các nghiên cứu về di cư thường ít được tập trung đầy đủ vào khu vực này, đặc biệt là khía cạnh di cư môi trường. Nghiên cứu này được thực hiện nhằm đánh giá tác động của các yếu tố liên quan đến biến đổi khí hậu, bao gồm nhiệt độ, lượng mưa, và phát thải CO2 đến quyết định di cư tại các quốc gia ASEAN từ năm 1990 đến 2020 theo dữ liệu định kỳ mỗi 5 năm. Nghiên cứu sử dụng phương pháp hồi quy GLS, kết hợp với các kỹ thuật đồng tích hợp FMOLS, DOLS và CCR để xem xét tác động của các nhân tố khí hậu và kinh tế xã hội đối với di cư. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy, nhiệt độ và phát thải CO2 có tác động đáng kể làm tăng tình trạng di cư ở các quốc gia ASEAN, trong khi lượng mưa hạn chế di cư. Bên cạnh đó, các yếu tố kinh tế - xã hội như tăng trưởng kinh tế, dân số và đô thị hóa cũng là những yếu tố tác động làm tăng di cư thuần đến các quốc gia ASEAN trong ba thập kỷ qua.
Chi tiết bài viết
Từ khóa
Biến đổi khí hậu, Di cư, Đông Nam Á, Lượng mưa, Nhiệt độ, Phát thải CO2
Tài liệu tham khảo
AboElsoud, M. E., AlQudah, A., & Elish, E. (2020). Does a change in immigration affect the unemployment rate in host countries? Evidence from Australia. Journal of Applied Economics, 23(1), 21-43. https://doi.org/10.1080/15140326.2019.1684740
Agba, A. M. O., Akpanudoedehe, J. J., Ojong, F. E., & Agba, M. S. (2021). Climate change, adaptation, and global jobs: Lessons and urgent policy options for Africa. Quantitative Economics and Management Studies, 2(3), 163-181. https://doi.org/10.35877/454ri.qems298
Achtnich, M. (2022). Bioeconomy and migrants’ lives in Libya. Cultural Anthropology, 37(1), 9-15. https://doi.org/10.14506/ca37.1.02
Arisman, A., & Jaya, R. K. (2020). Labour migration in ASEAN: Indonesian migrant workers in Johor Bahru, Malaysia. Asian Education and Development Studies, 10(1), 27-39. https://doi.org/10.1108/AEDS-02-2019-0034
Backhaus, A., Martinez-Zarzoso, I., & Muris, C. (2015). Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis. IZA Journal of Migration, 4(1), 3. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40176-014-0026-3
Bang, J. T., & MacDermott, R. (2019). Does FDI attract immigrants? An empirical gravity model approach. International Migration Review, 53(1), 237-253. https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183187685
Beine, M., & Parsons, C. R. (2017). Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration. CESifo Economic Studies, 63(4), 386–402. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifx017
Beyer, R. M., Schewe, J., & Lotze-Campen, H. (2022). Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 9(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01067-x
Black, R., Bennett, S. R. G., Beddington, J. R., & Thomas, S. M. (2011). Migration as adaptation. Nature, 478, 447–449. https://www.nature.com/articles/478477a
Cattaneo, C., Beine, M., Fröhlich, C. J., Kniveton, D., Martinez-Zarzoso, I., Mastrorillo, M., Millock, K., Piguet, E., & Schraven, B. (2019). Human migration in the era of climate change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 13(2). https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1093/reep/rez008?journalCode=reep
Chen, J., & Mueller, V. (2019). Climate-induced cross-border migration and change in demographic structure. Population and Environment, 41(2), 98-125. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-019-00328-3
Huỳnh Ngọc Chương & Nguyễn Chí Hải (2022). Ảnh hưởng của vốn xã hội và biến đổi khí hậu đến di cư ở khu vực nông thôn Việt Nam. Tạp Chí Nghiên cứu Tài chính - Marketing, 13(5), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.52932/jfm.vi71.313
Cottier, T., & Shingal, A. (2021). Migration, Trade and Investment: Towards a New Common Concern of Humankind. Journal of World Trade, 55(1), 51-76. https://doi.org/10.54648/trad2021002
Czaika, M., & de Haas, H. (2017). The effect of visas on migration processes. International Migration Review, 51(4), 893-926. https://doi.org/10.1111/imre.12261
Dallmann, I., & Millock, K. (2017). Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India. CESifo Economic Studies, 63(4), 560–594. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifx014
Espinosa, A. M., & Díaz-Emparanza, I. (2021). The long-term relationship between international labour migration and unemployment in Spain. Journal of International Migration and Integration, 22(1), 145-166. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12134-019-00716-6
Falco, C., Galeotti, M., & Olper, A. (2019). Climate change and migration: is agriculture the main channel?. Global Environmental Change, 59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101995
Guzi, M., & Mikula, Š. (2022). Reforms that keep you at home: The effects of economic transition on migration. Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, 30(2), 289-310. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12287
Harris, J. R., & Todaro, M. P. (1970). Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two-Sector Analysis. The American Economic Review, 60(1), Article 1. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1807860
Hasnat, M. A., Chowdhury, M. A., & Abdullah-Al-Mamun, M. M. (2022). Perception of people on climate-induced migration issues in coastal areas of Bangladesh. Migration and Development, 11(1), 142-162. https://doi.org/10.1080/21632324.2020.174250
Jha, C. K., Gupta, V., Chattopadhyay, U., & Sreeraman, B. A. (2017). Migration as adaptation strategy to cope with climate change: A study of farmers’ migration in rural India. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 10(1), 121–141. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2017-0059
Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), Article 1. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063
Macková, L., Harmáček. J., Opršal, Z. (2019). Determinants of international migration from developing countries to Czechia and Slovakia. In Determinants of international migration from developing countries to Czechia and Slovakia: Macková, Lucie. https://hdl.handle.net/11159/4240
Marchiori, E., & Cantoni, L. (2015). The role of prior experience in the perception of a tourism destination in user-generated content. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 4(3), 194–201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2015.06.001
Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A., & Taylor, J. E. (1993). Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431–466. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938462
Mastrorillo, M., Licker, R., Bohra-Mishra, P., Fagiolo, G., Estes, L. D., & Oppenheimer, M. (2016). The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa. Global Environmental Change, 39, 155–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.014
McConnon, E. (2022). People as security risks: the framing of migration in the UK security-development nexus. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 48(6), 1381-1397. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2020.1851467
Minehan, S., & Wesselbaum, D. (2023). Do climate change expectations drive migration? Evidence from migration flows towards OECD countries. Global and Planetary Change, 227, 104188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104188
Mueller, V., Sheriff, G., Dou, X., & Gray, C. (2020). Temporary migration and climate variation in eastern Africa. World Development, 126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104704
Nawrotzki, R. J., & Bakhtsiyarava, M. (2017). International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway. Population, Space and Place, 23(4). https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2033
Rafiq, S., Nielsen, I., & Smyth, R. (2017). Effect of internal migration on the environment in China. Energy Economics, 64, 31-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.03.009
Ravenstein, E. G. (1885). The Laws of Migration. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), Article 2. https://doi.org/10.2307/2979181
Raymer, J., Liu, N., & Bai, X. (2019). Age articulation of Australia’s international migration flows. Population, Place, and Spatial Interaction: Essays in Honor of David Plane, 171-200. Springer Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-9231-3
Schneider, O. (2022). Labour Migration in the European Union: The Case of Central and Eastern Europe. Economic Annals, 67(233), 7-38. https://doi.org/10.2298/EKA2233007S
Sedova, B., & Kalkuhl, M. (2020). Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India. World Development, 129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104848
Sloat, L. L., Davis, S. J., Gerber, J. S., Moore, F. C., Ray, D. K., West, P. C., & Mueller, N. D. (2020). Climate adaptation by crop migration. Nature Communications, 11(1), Article 1. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15076-4
Thiede, B., Gray, C., & Mueller, V. (2016). Climate Variability and Inter-Provincial Migration in South America, 1970-2011. Global Environmental Change : Human and Policy Dimensions, 41, 228–240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.005
Thomas, M. J. (2019). Employment, education, and family: Revealing the motives behind internal migration in Great Britain. Population, Space and Place, 25(4). https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2233
Tombe, T., & Zhu, X. (2019). Trade, migration, and productivity: A quantitative analysis of china. American Economic Review, 109(5), 1843-1872. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20150811
Tomohara, A. (2019). Migrant and business network effects on intellectual property trade: Evidence from Japan. Economic Analysis and Policy, 62, 131-139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2019.01.007
UN. (2020). World Social Report 2020. https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-social-report-2020
United Nations Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Population Division (2020), International Migrants Stock 2020
Withers, M., Henderson, S., & Shivakoti, R. (2022). International migration, remittances and COVID-19: Economic implications and policy options for South Asia. Journal of Asian Public Policy, 15(2), 284-299. https://doi.org/10.1080/17516234.2021.1880047
Agba, A. M. O., Akpanudoedehe, J. J., Ojong, F. E., & Agba, M. S. (2021). Climate change, adaptation, and global jobs: Lessons and urgent policy options for Africa. Quantitative Economics and Management Studies, 2(3), 163-181. https://doi.org/10.35877/454ri.qems298
Achtnich, M. (2022). Bioeconomy and migrants’ lives in Libya. Cultural Anthropology, 37(1), 9-15. https://doi.org/10.14506/ca37.1.02
Arisman, A., & Jaya, R. K. (2020). Labour migration in ASEAN: Indonesian migrant workers in Johor Bahru, Malaysia. Asian Education and Development Studies, 10(1), 27-39. https://doi.org/10.1108/AEDS-02-2019-0034
Backhaus, A., Martinez-Zarzoso, I., & Muris, C. (2015). Do climate variations explain bilateral migration? A gravity model analysis. IZA Journal of Migration, 4(1), 3. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40176-014-0026-3
Bang, J. T., & MacDermott, R. (2019). Does FDI attract immigrants? An empirical gravity model approach. International Migration Review, 53(1), 237-253. https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183187685
Beine, M., & Parsons, C. R. (2017). Climatic Factors as Determinants of International Migration. CESifo Economic Studies, 63(4), 386–402. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifx017
Beyer, R. M., Schewe, J., & Lotze-Campen, H. (2022). Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 9(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01067-x
Black, R., Bennett, S. R. G., Beddington, J. R., & Thomas, S. M. (2011). Migration as adaptation. Nature, 478, 447–449. https://www.nature.com/articles/478477a
Cattaneo, C., Beine, M., Fröhlich, C. J., Kniveton, D., Martinez-Zarzoso, I., Mastrorillo, M., Millock, K., Piguet, E., & Schraven, B. (2019). Human migration in the era of climate change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 13(2). https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1093/reep/rez008?journalCode=reep
Chen, J., & Mueller, V. (2019). Climate-induced cross-border migration and change in demographic structure. Population and Environment, 41(2), 98-125. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-019-00328-3
Huỳnh Ngọc Chương & Nguyễn Chí Hải (2022). Ảnh hưởng của vốn xã hội và biến đổi khí hậu đến di cư ở khu vực nông thôn Việt Nam. Tạp Chí Nghiên cứu Tài chính - Marketing, 13(5), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.52932/jfm.vi71.313
Cottier, T., & Shingal, A. (2021). Migration, Trade and Investment: Towards a New Common Concern of Humankind. Journal of World Trade, 55(1), 51-76. https://doi.org/10.54648/trad2021002
Czaika, M., & de Haas, H. (2017). The effect of visas on migration processes. International Migration Review, 51(4), 893-926. https://doi.org/10.1111/imre.12261
Dallmann, I., & Millock, K. (2017). Climate Variability and Inter-State Migration in India. CESifo Economic Studies, 63(4), 560–594. https://doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/ifx014
Espinosa, A. M., & Díaz-Emparanza, I. (2021). The long-term relationship between international labour migration and unemployment in Spain. Journal of International Migration and Integration, 22(1), 145-166. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12134-019-00716-6
Falco, C., Galeotti, M., & Olper, A. (2019). Climate change and migration: is agriculture the main channel?. Global Environmental Change, 59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101995
Guzi, M., & Mikula, Š. (2022). Reforms that keep you at home: The effects of economic transition on migration. Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, 30(2), 289-310. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12287
Harris, J. R., & Todaro, M. P. (1970). Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two-Sector Analysis. The American Economic Review, 60(1), Article 1. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1807860
Hasnat, M. A., Chowdhury, M. A., & Abdullah-Al-Mamun, M. M. (2022). Perception of people on climate-induced migration issues in coastal areas of Bangladesh. Migration and Development, 11(1), 142-162. https://doi.org/10.1080/21632324.2020.174250
Jha, C. K., Gupta, V., Chattopadhyay, U., & Sreeraman, B. A. (2017). Migration as adaptation strategy to cope with climate change: A study of farmers’ migration in rural India. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 10(1), 121–141. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2017-0059
Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), Article 1. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060063
Macková, L., Harmáček. J., Opršal, Z. (2019). Determinants of international migration from developing countries to Czechia and Slovakia. In Determinants of international migration from developing countries to Czechia and Slovakia: Macková, Lucie. https://hdl.handle.net/11159/4240
Marchiori, E., & Cantoni, L. (2015). The role of prior experience in the perception of a tourism destination in user-generated content. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management, 4(3), 194–201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2015.06.001
Massey, D. S., Arango, J., Hugo, G., Kouaouci, A., Pellegrino, A., & Taylor, J. E. (1993). Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431–466. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938462
Mastrorillo, M., Licker, R., Bohra-Mishra, P., Fagiolo, G., Estes, L. D., & Oppenheimer, M. (2016). The influence of climate variability on internal migration flows in South Africa. Global Environmental Change, 39, 155–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.04.014
McConnon, E. (2022). People as security risks: the framing of migration in the UK security-development nexus. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 48(6), 1381-1397. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2020.1851467
Minehan, S., & Wesselbaum, D. (2023). Do climate change expectations drive migration? Evidence from migration flows towards OECD countries. Global and Planetary Change, 227, 104188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104188
Mueller, V., Sheriff, G., Dou, X., & Gray, C. (2020). Temporary migration and climate variation in eastern Africa. World Development, 126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104704
Nawrotzki, R. J., & Bakhtsiyarava, M. (2017). International Climate Migration: Evidence for the Climate Inhibitor Mechanism and the Agricultural Pathway. Population, Space and Place, 23(4). https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2033
Rafiq, S., Nielsen, I., & Smyth, R. (2017). Effect of internal migration on the environment in China. Energy Economics, 64, 31-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.03.009
Ravenstein, E. G. (1885). The Laws of Migration. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), Article 2. https://doi.org/10.2307/2979181
Raymer, J., Liu, N., & Bai, X. (2019). Age articulation of Australia’s international migration flows. Population, Place, and Spatial Interaction: Essays in Honor of David Plane, 171-200. Springer Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-9231-3
Schneider, O. (2022). Labour Migration in the European Union: The Case of Central and Eastern Europe. Economic Annals, 67(233), 7-38. https://doi.org/10.2298/EKA2233007S
Sedova, B., & Kalkuhl, M. (2020). Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India. World Development, 129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104848
Sloat, L. L., Davis, S. J., Gerber, J. S., Moore, F. C., Ray, D. K., West, P. C., & Mueller, N. D. (2020). Climate adaptation by crop migration. Nature Communications, 11(1), Article 1. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15076-4
Thiede, B., Gray, C., & Mueller, V. (2016). Climate Variability and Inter-Provincial Migration in South America, 1970-2011. Global Environmental Change : Human and Policy Dimensions, 41, 228–240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.10.005
Thomas, M. J. (2019). Employment, education, and family: Revealing the motives behind internal migration in Great Britain. Population, Space and Place, 25(4). https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2233
Tombe, T., & Zhu, X. (2019). Trade, migration, and productivity: A quantitative analysis of china. American Economic Review, 109(5), 1843-1872. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20150811
Tomohara, A. (2019). Migrant and business network effects on intellectual property trade: Evidence from Japan. Economic Analysis and Policy, 62, 131-139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2019.01.007
UN. (2020). World Social Report 2020. https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-social-report-2020
United Nations Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Population Division (2020), International Migrants Stock 2020
Withers, M., Henderson, S., & Shivakoti, R. (2022). International migration, remittances and COVID-19: Economic implications and policy options for South Asia. Journal of Asian Public Policy, 15(2), 284-299. https://doi.org/10.1080/17516234.2021.1880047
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