Ảnh hưởng của chính sách cổ tức đến giá cổ phiếu của các công ty niêm yết trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam
Nội dung chính của bài viết
Tóm tắt
Chính sách cổ tức là một trong những chính sách quan trọng nhất trong quản trị tài chính doanh nghiệp. Việc hiểu về tác động của chính sách cổ tức đến phân phối lợi nhuận, giá trị doanh nghiệp và do đó đến giá cổ phiếu của doanh nghiệp trên thị trường là quan trọng để doanh nghiệp hoạch định chính sách hợp lý, đồng thời là cơ sở để các nhà đầu tư đưa ra quyết định đầu tư đúng đắn. Nghiên cứu này được thực hiện nhằm mục tiêu đánh giá tác động của chính sách cổ tức đến giá cổ phiếu của các doanh nghiệp niêm yết trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam trong giai đoạn 2010-2018, dựa trên tính khả dụng của dữ liệu chi trả cổ tức liên tục. Sử dụng phương pháp hồi quy FGLS trên dữ liệu bảng của 100 công ty niêm yết trên sàn HoSE và HNX, chúng tôi tìm thấy bằng chứng về tác động của chính sách cổ tức đến giá cổ phiếu, ủng hộ lý thuyết chú chim trong lòng bàn tay và lý thuyết phát tín hiệu. Phát hiện của nghiên cứu giúp gợi mở một vài khuyến nghị đối với doanh nghiệp và nhà đầu tư.
Chi tiết bài viết
Từ khóa
Chính sách cổ tức, cổ tức, chi trả cổ tức, giá cổ phiếu
Tài liệu tham khảo
Adefila, J. J., Oladipo, J. A., & Adeoti, J. O. (2004). The effect of dividend policy on the market price of
shares in Nigeria: case study of fifteen quoted companies. International Journal of Accounting, 2(1),
82-91.
Adesina, K., Uwuigbe, U., Uwuigbe, O. R., Asiriuwa, O., & Oriabe, S. (2017). Dividend policy and share
price valuation in Nigerian banks. Euro Economica, 36(1), 185–195.
Adesola, W. A., & Okwong, A. E. (2009). An empirical study of dividend policy of quoted companies in
Nigeria. Global Journal of Social Sciences, 8(1), 85-101.
Aharony, J. & Swary, I. (1980). Quarterly Dividend and Earnings Announcements and Stockholders’
Returns: An Empirical Analysis. The Journal of Finance, 35(1), 1-12.
Ahmed, H. & Javid, A.Y. (2009). The determinants of dividend policy in Pakistan. International Research
Journal of Finance and Economics. 29, 110- 125.
Al-Kuwari, D. (2009). Determinants of the Dividend Policy of Companies Listed on Emerging Stock
Exchanges: The Case of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries. Global Economy & Finance
Journal, 2 (2), 38-63.
Allen, D. E., & Rachim, V. S. (1996). Dividend policy and stock price volatility: Australian evidence. Applied
financial economics, 6(2), 175-188.
Ali, M. B., & Chowdhury, T. A. (2010). Effect of dividend on stock price in emerging stock market: A study
on the listed private commercial banks in DSE. International journal of Economics and Finance, 2(4),
52-64.
Al-Malkawi, H. A. N. (2008). Factors Influencing Corporate Dividend Decision: Evidence from Jordanian
Panel Data. International journal of business, 13(2), 177-195.
Akbar, M. & Baig, H. H. (2010). Reaction of Stock Prices to Dividend Announcements and Market Efficiency
in Pakistan. Lahore Journal of Economics, 15(1), 103-125.
Asquith, P. & Mullins, D. (1983). The impact of initiating dividends on shareholder wealth. Journal of
Business, 56, 77-96.
Baker, H. K., & Powell, G. E. (2012). Dividend Policy in Indonesia:Survey Evidence from Executives.
Journal of Asian Business Studies, 6(1), 79–92.
Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data. England: JohnWiley & Sons Ltd.
Baskin, J. (1989). Dividend policy and the volatility of common stocks. Journal of portfolio
Management, 15(3), 19.
Bhattacharya, S. (1979). Imperfect information, dividend policy, and” the bird in the hand” fallacy. The Bell
Journal of Economics, 259-270.
Brigham, E. F. & Houston, J. F. (2011). Fundamental of Financial Management. Cengage Learning, 7th
edition (January 26, 2011).
Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1974). The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices
and returns. Journal of financial economics, 1(1), 1-22.
Chen, D. H., Liu, H. H & Huang, C. T (2009). The Announcement Effect of Cash Dividend Changes on
Share Prices: An Empirical Analysis of China. The Chinese Economy, 42(1), 62-85.
Denis, D. J., & Osobov, I. (2008). Why do firms pay dividends? International evidence on the determinants
of dividend policy. Journal of Financial economics, 89(1), 62-82.
Drukker, D. M. (2003). Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models. The Stata Journal, 3(2),
168–177.
Easterbrook, F. H. (1984). Two agency-cost explanations of dividends. The American economic review, 74(4),
650-659.
Gordon, M. J. (1963). Optimal investment and financing policy. The Journal of finance, 18(2), 264-272.
Greene, W. (2000). Econometric Analysis. New Jersey: Prentice–Hall.
Gujarati, D. N. (2004). Basic Econometric, New York. The McGraw−Hill Companies.
Gujarati, D. N. & Porter, D. (2009). Basic Econometrics. 5th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Hunjra, A. I., Ijaz, M., Chani, D., Irfan, M., & Mustafa, U. (2014). Impact of dividend policy, earning
per share, return on equity, profit after tax on stock prices. International Journal of Economics and
Empirical Research, 2(3), 109-115.
Hussainey, K., Mgbame, C. O., & Chijoke‐Mgbame, A. M. (2011). Dividend policy and share price volatility:
UK evidence. The Journal of risk finance.
Jensen, M. C. & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and
ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305-360.
Tạp chí Nghiên cứu Tài chính – Marketing số 60, 12/2020
Judge, G. G., Hill, R.C., Griffiths, W.E., Lutkepol H. & Lee T.C. (1988). Introduction to the theory and
practice of econometrics. New York: Wiley-Blackwell.
Keown, A. J., ,Martin, J. D, Petty, J. W, & Scott, D. F. (2007). Foundations of Finance: The Logic and
Practice of Financial Management (6th ed.). London: Pearson Prentice Hall.
Khan, M. Y., & Jain, P. K. (2008). Financial Management. New Dehli: Tata McGrawHill Publishing
Company.
Khan, K. I., Aamir, M., Qayyum, A., Nasir, A., & Khan, M. I. (2011). Can dividend decisions affect the stock
prices: A case of dividend paying companies of KSE. International Research Journal of Finance and
Economics, 76(68), 69-74.
Ling, F. S., Mutalip, M. L., Shahrin, A. R., & Othman, M. S. (2008). Dividend Policy: Evidence
from Public Listed Companies in Malaysia. International Review of Business Research Papers,
4(4), 208-222.
Lintner, J. (1956). Distribution of incomes of corporations among dividends, retained earnings, and
taxes. The American economic review, 46(2), 97-113.
Liu, S., & Hu, Y. (2005). Empirical analysis of cash dividend payment in Chinese listed companies. Nature
and Science, 1(3), 65-70.
Masum, A. A (2014). Dividend Policy and Its Impact on Stock Price – A Study on Commercial Banks Listed
in Dhaka Stock Exchange. Global Disclosure of Economics and Business, 3(1), 9-17.
Miller, M. H., & Modigliani, F. (1961). Dividend policy, growth, and the valuation of shares. the Journal of
Business, 34(4), 411-433.
Nazir, M. S., Nawaz, M. M., Anwar, W., & Ahmed, F. (2010). Determinants of stock price volatility in
karachi stock exchange: The mediating role of corporate dividend policy. International Research
Journal of Finance and Economics, 55(55), 100-107.
Irfan, C. M. and Nishat, M. (2003). “Key fundamental factors and long run stock price changes in an
emerging market- A case study of Karachi stock exchange”, Paper presented at PSDE conference,
Islamabad.
Irfan, C. M. and Nishat, M. (2003). “Key fundamental factors and long run stock price changes in an
emerging market - A case study of Karachi stock exchange”, Paper presented at PSDE conference,
Islamabad.
Nishat, M., & Irfan, C. M. (2003). Dividend Policy and Stock Price Volatility inPakistan. 11th Pacific Basin
Finance, Economics and Accounting Conference.
NTUI, P. P., Yuda, T. Y., Prosper, K. P., & Samwel, G. S. (2015). Relationship between dividend policy and
share price. Archives of business research, 3(3).
Pani, U. (2008). Dividend Policy and Stock Price Behaviour in Indian Corporate Sector: A panel data
approach. Retrieved from Indian Institute of Technology: http://ssrn. com/abstract, 1216171.
Pushpa, B., & Sumangala, J. K. (2012). Impact of earnings per share on market value of an equity share:
An empirical study in Indian capital market. Journal of Finance, Accounting and Management, 3(2),
1–14.
Raaballe, J. & Hedensted, J. S. (2008). Dividend Determinants in Denmark. SSRN Electronic Journal.
Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1123436 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1123436.
Sharif, I., Ali, A. & Jan, F. A. (2015). Effect of Dividend Policy on Stock Prices. Journal of Management
Info, 6(1), 55-85.
Singh, N. P., & Tandon, A. (2019). The Effect of Dividend Policy on Stock Price: Evidence from the Indian
Market. Asia-Pacific Journal of Management Research and Innovation, 15(1-2), 7-15.
Travlos, N. G., Trigeorgis, L., & Vafeas, N. (2001). Shareholder wealth effects of dividend policy changes in
an emerging stock market: The case of Cyprus. Multinational Finance Journal, 5(2), 87-112.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, Massachusetts:
The MIT Press.
shares in Nigeria: case study of fifteen quoted companies. International Journal of Accounting, 2(1),
82-91.
Adesina, K., Uwuigbe, U., Uwuigbe, O. R., Asiriuwa, O., & Oriabe, S. (2017). Dividend policy and share
price valuation in Nigerian banks. Euro Economica, 36(1), 185–195.
Adesola, W. A., & Okwong, A. E. (2009). An empirical study of dividend policy of quoted companies in
Nigeria. Global Journal of Social Sciences, 8(1), 85-101.
Aharony, J. & Swary, I. (1980). Quarterly Dividend and Earnings Announcements and Stockholders’
Returns: An Empirical Analysis. The Journal of Finance, 35(1), 1-12.
Ahmed, H. & Javid, A.Y. (2009). The determinants of dividend policy in Pakistan. International Research
Journal of Finance and Economics. 29, 110- 125.
Al-Kuwari, D. (2009). Determinants of the Dividend Policy of Companies Listed on Emerging Stock
Exchanges: The Case of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries. Global Economy & Finance
Journal, 2 (2), 38-63.
Allen, D. E., & Rachim, V. S. (1996). Dividend policy and stock price volatility: Australian evidence. Applied
financial economics, 6(2), 175-188.
Ali, M. B., & Chowdhury, T. A. (2010). Effect of dividend on stock price in emerging stock market: A study
on the listed private commercial banks in DSE. International journal of Economics and Finance, 2(4),
52-64.
Al-Malkawi, H. A. N. (2008). Factors Influencing Corporate Dividend Decision: Evidence from Jordanian
Panel Data. International journal of business, 13(2), 177-195.
Akbar, M. & Baig, H. H. (2010). Reaction of Stock Prices to Dividend Announcements and Market Efficiency
in Pakistan. Lahore Journal of Economics, 15(1), 103-125.
Asquith, P. & Mullins, D. (1983). The impact of initiating dividends on shareholder wealth. Journal of
Business, 56, 77-96.
Baker, H. K., & Powell, G. E. (2012). Dividend Policy in Indonesia:Survey Evidence from Executives.
Journal of Asian Business Studies, 6(1), 79–92.
Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data. England: JohnWiley & Sons Ltd.
Baskin, J. (1989). Dividend policy and the volatility of common stocks. Journal of portfolio
Management, 15(3), 19.
Bhattacharya, S. (1979). Imperfect information, dividend policy, and” the bird in the hand” fallacy. The Bell
Journal of Economics, 259-270.
Brigham, E. F. & Houston, J. F. (2011). Fundamental of Financial Management. Cengage Learning, 7th
edition (January 26, 2011).
Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1974). The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices
and returns. Journal of financial economics, 1(1), 1-22.
Chen, D. H., Liu, H. H & Huang, C. T (2009). The Announcement Effect of Cash Dividend Changes on
Share Prices: An Empirical Analysis of China. The Chinese Economy, 42(1), 62-85.
Denis, D. J., & Osobov, I. (2008). Why do firms pay dividends? International evidence on the determinants
of dividend policy. Journal of Financial economics, 89(1), 62-82.
Drukker, D. M. (2003). Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models. The Stata Journal, 3(2),
168–177.
Easterbrook, F. H. (1984). Two agency-cost explanations of dividends. The American economic review, 74(4),
650-659.
Gordon, M. J. (1963). Optimal investment and financing policy. The Journal of finance, 18(2), 264-272.
Greene, W. (2000). Econometric Analysis. New Jersey: Prentice–Hall.
Gujarati, D. N. (2004). Basic Econometric, New York. The McGraw−Hill Companies.
Gujarati, D. N. & Porter, D. (2009). Basic Econometrics. 5th edn. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Hunjra, A. I., Ijaz, M., Chani, D., Irfan, M., & Mustafa, U. (2014). Impact of dividend policy, earning
per share, return on equity, profit after tax on stock prices. International Journal of Economics and
Empirical Research, 2(3), 109-115.
Hussainey, K., Mgbame, C. O., & Chijoke‐Mgbame, A. M. (2011). Dividend policy and share price volatility:
UK evidence. The Journal of risk finance.
Jensen, M. C. & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and
ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305-360.
Tạp chí Nghiên cứu Tài chính – Marketing số 60, 12/2020
Judge, G. G., Hill, R.C., Griffiths, W.E., Lutkepol H. & Lee T.C. (1988). Introduction to the theory and
practice of econometrics. New York: Wiley-Blackwell.
Keown, A. J., ,Martin, J. D, Petty, J. W, & Scott, D. F. (2007). Foundations of Finance: The Logic and
Practice of Financial Management (6th ed.). London: Pearson Prentice Hall.
Khan, M. Y., & Jain, P. K. (2008). Financial Management. New Dehli: Tata McGrawHill Publishing
Company.
Khan, K. I., Aamir, M., Qayyum, A., Nasir, A., & Khan, M. I. (2011). Can dividend decisions affect the stock
prices: A case of dividend paying companies of KSE. International Research Journal of Finance and
Economics, 76(68), 69-74.
Ling, F. S., Mutalip, M. L., Shahrin, A. R., & Othman, M. S. (2008). Dividend Policy: Evidence
from Public Listed Companies in Malaysia. International Review of Business Research Papers,
4(4), 208-222.
Lintner, J. (1956). Distribution of incomes of corporations among dividends, retained earnings, and
taxes. The American economic review, 46(2), 97-113.
Liu, S., & Hu, Y. (2005). Empirical analysis of cash dividend payment in Chinese listed companies. Nature
and Science, 1(3), 65-70.
Masum, A. A (2014). Dividend Policy and Its Impact on Stock Price – A Study on Commercial Banks Listed
in Dhaka Stock Exchange. Global Disclosure of Economics and Business, 3(1), 9-17.
Miller, M. H., & Modigliani, F. (1961). Dividend policy, growth, and the valuation of shares. the Journal of
Business, 34(4), 411-433.
Nazir, M. S., Nawaz, M. M., Anwar, W., & Ahmed, F. (2010). Determinants of stock price volatility in
karachi stock exchange: The mediating role of corporate dividend policy. International Research
Journal of Finance and Economics, 55(55), 100-107.
Irfan, C. M. and Nishat, M. (2003). “Key fundamental factors and long run stock price changes in an
emerging market- A case study of Karachi stock exchange”, Paper presented at PSDE conference,
Islamabad.
Irfan, C. M. and Nishat, M. (2003). “Key fundamental factors and long run stock price changes in an
emerging market - A case study of Karachi stock exchange”, Paper presented at PSDE conference,
Islamabad.
Nishat, M., & Irfan, C. M. (2003). Dividend Policy and Stock Price Volatility inPakistan. 11th Pacific Basin
Finance, Economics and Accounting Conference.
NTUI, P. P., Yuda, T. Y., Prosper, K. P., & Samwel, G. S. (2015). Relationship between dividend policy and
share price. Archives of business research, 3(3).
Pani, U. (2008). Dividend Policy and Stock Price Behaviour in Indian Corporate Sector: A panel data
approach. Retrieved from Indian Institute of Technology: http://ssrn. com/abstract, 1216171.
Pushpa, B., & Sumangala, J. K. (2012). Impact of earnings per share on market value of an equity share:
An empirical study in Indian capital market. Journal of Finance, Accounting and Management, 3(2),
1–14.
Raaballe, J. & Hedensted, J. S. (2008). Dividend Determinants in Denmark. SSRN Electronic Journal.
Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1123436 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1123436.
Sharif, I., Ali, A. & Jan, F. A. (2015). Effect of Dividend Policy on Stock Prices. Journal of Management
Info, 6(1), 55-85.
Singh, N. P., & Tandon, A. (2019). The Effect of Dividend Policy on Stock Price: Evidence from the Indian
Market. Asia-Pacific Journal of Management Research and Innovation, 15(1-2), 7-15.
Travlos, N. G., Trigeorgis, L., & Vafeas, N. (2001). Shareholder wealth effects of dividend policy changes in
an emerging stock market: The case of Cyprus. Multinational Finance Journal, 5(2), 87-112.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, Massachusetts:
The MIT Press.