Mối quan hệ nhân quả giữa thuế và đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài: Nghiên cứu thực nghiệm tại các quốc gia đang phát triển
Nội dung chính của bài viết
Tóm tắt
Bài báo phân tích mối quan hệ nhân quả giữa thuế và đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài (FDI) tại 32 quốc gia đang phát triển trong đoạn từ năm 2009 – 2019. Phân tích thực nghiệm dựa trên dữ liệu bảng của các quốc gia để kiểm tra tính chất nhân quả giữa các biến tạo thành bảng. Kết quả cho thấy, tồn tại một mối quan hệ đồng tích hợp trong dài hạn giữa thuế và FDI. Ngoài ra, khả năng có thể có của mối quan hệ nhân quả được phân tích giữa các biến bằng cách sử dụng kiểm định nhân quả được phát triển bởi Dumitrescu và Hurlin (2012). Kết quả phân tích cho thấy mối quan hệ nhân quả hai chiều giữa thuế và đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài. Trên cơ sở đó, nghiên cứu đưa ra một số gợi ý cho chính sách thuế đối với FDI tại các quốc gia này.
Chi tiết bài viết
Từ khóa
FDI, Thuế, Quan hệ nhân quả, Quốc gia đang phát triển
Tài liệu tham khảo
Agosin, M. R., & Machado, R. (2005). Foreign investment in developing countries: does it crowd in domestic investment? Oxford Development Studies, 33(2), 149-162.
Aslam, A. M. (2015). A case study of cointegration relationship between tax revenue and foreign direct investment: evidence from Sri Lanka. In 2nd International Symposium, FIA, South Eastern University of Sri Lanka, 241, 251.
Atukeren, E. (2007). A Causal Analysis of the R&D Interactions between the EU and the US. Global Economy Journal, 7(4), 1-29. doi: 10.2202/1524-5861.1301
Azémar, C., & Dharmapala, D. (2019). Tax sparing agreements, territorial tax reforms, and foreign direct investment. Journal of public economics, 169, 89-108.
Bayar, Y., & Ozturk, O. F. (2018). Impact of foreign direct investment inflows on tax revenues in OECD countries: A panel cointegration and causality analysis. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 25(1 (614), Spring), 31-40.
Blackburne III, E. F., & Frank, M. W. (2007). Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels. The Stata Journal, 7(2), 197-208.
Bolwijn, R., Casella, B., & Rigo, D. (2018). An FDI-driven approach to measuring the scale and economic impact of BEPS. Transnational Corporations, 25(2), 107-144.
Bond, E. W., & Samuelson, L. (1986). Tax holidays as signals. The American Economic Review, 76(4), 820-826.
Chakrabarti, A. (2001). The determinants of foreign direct investments: Sensitivity analyses of cross‐country regressions. kyklos, 54(1), 89-114.
Clausing, K. A. (2009). Multinational firm tax avoidance and tax policy. National Tax Journal, 62(4), 703-725.
Crivelli, E., de Mooij, R., & Keen, M. (2016). Base Erosion, Profit Shifting and Developing Countries. FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, 72(3), 268-301.
Devereux, M. P., & Freeman, H. (1995). The impact of tax on foreign direct investment: empirical evidence and the implications for tax integration schemes. International tax and public finance, 2(1), 85-106.
Dickey, D. A. and Fuller W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
Dumitrescu, E. I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
Fischel, W. A. (1975). Fiscal and environmental considerations in the location of firms in suburban communities, in “Fiscal Zoning and Land Use Controls”(ES Mills and WE Oates, Eds.). Heath-Lexington, Lexington, Mass.
Frees, EW. (1995). Assessing Cross-sectional Correlations in Panel Data. Journal of Econometrics 69: 393-414.
Friedman, M. 1937. The Use of Ranks to Avoid the Assumption of Normality Implicit in the Analysis of Variance. Journal of the American Statistical Association 32: 675-701.
Fuest, C., Huber, B., & Mintz, J. (2005). Capital Mobility and Tax Competition. Foundations and Trends® in Microeconomics, 1(1), 1-62.
Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
Hartwig, J. (2009). A panel Granger-causality test of endogenous vs. exogenous growth.
Hoyos, R. E., & Sarafidis, V. (2006). Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models. The stata journal, 6(4), 482-496.
Jhingan, M. L. (2004). Money, Banking, International Trade and Public Finance. 7th edition. Vrinda Publication (P) Ltd, New Delhi.
Oates, W. E. (1972). Fiscal federalism. Books.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2015). OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Project. OECD Publishing.
Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Available at SSRN 572504.
Rendon-Garza, J. R. (2006). Global corporate tax competition for export-oriented foreign direct investment. Georgia State University.
Tiebout, C. M. (1956). A pure theory of local expenditures. Journal of political economy, 64(5), 416-424.
Urbain, J. P., & Westerlund, J. (2006). Spurious regression in nonstationary panels with cross-unit cointegration. METEOR, Maastricht research school of Economics of TEchnology and ORganizations.
Wang, Z. Q. a. N. J. S. (1995). The determinants of foreign direct investment in transforming economies: Empirical evidence from Hungary and China‖, Review of World Economics, 131(2), 359-382.
Wei, S. J. (2000). How taxing is corruption on international investors?. Review of economics and statistics, 82(1), 1-11.
Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69, 709-748
White, M. J. (1975). Firm location in a zoned metropolitan area. Fiscal zoning and land use controls, 175-202.
Wilson, J. D. (1999). Theories of tax competition. National tax journal, 52(2), 269-304.
Zucman, G. (2014). Taxing across borders: Tracking personal wealth and corporate profits. Journal of economic perspectives, 28(4), 121-48.
Aslam, A. M. (2015). A case study of cointegration relationship between tax revenue and foreign direct investment: evidence from Sri Lanka. In 2nd International Symposium, FIA, South Eastern University of Sri Lanka, 241, 251.
Atukeren, E. (2007). A Causal Analysis of the R&D Interactions between the EU and the US. Global Economy Journal, 7(4), 1-29. doi: 10.2202/1524-5861.1301
Azémar, C., & Dharmapala, D. (2019). Tax sparing agreements, territorial tax reforms, and foreign direct investment. Journal of public economics, 169, 89-108.
Bayar, Y., & Ozturk, O. F. (2018). Impact of foreign direct investment inflows on tax revenues in OECD countries: A panel cointegration and causality analysis. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 25(1 (614), Spring), 31-40.
Blackburne III, E. F., & Frank, M. W. (2007). Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels. The Stata Journal, 7(2), 197-208.
Bolwijn, R., Casella, B., & Rigo, D. (2018). An FDI-driven approach to measuring the scale and economic impact of BEPS. Transnational Corporations, 25(2), 107-144.
Bond, E. W., & Samuelson, L. (1986). Tax holidays as signals. The American Economic Review, 76(4), 820-826.
Chakrabarti, A. (2001). The determinants of foreign direct investments: Sensitivity analyses of cross‐country regressions. kyklos, 54(1), 89-114.
Clausing, K. A. (2009). Multinational firm tax avoidance and tax policy. National Tax Journal, 62(4), 703-725.
Crivelli, E., de Mooij, R., & Keen, M. (2016). Base Erosion, Profit Shifting and Developing Countries. FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, 72(3), 268-301.
Devereux, M. P., & Freeman, H. (1995). The impact of tax on foreign direct investment: empirical evidence and the implications for tax integration schemes. International tax and public finance, 2(1), 85-106.
Dickey, D. A. and Fuller W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
Dumitrescu, E. I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
Fischel, W. A. (1975). Fiscal and environmental considerations in the location of firms in suburban communities, in “Fiscal Zoning and Land Use Controls”(ES Mills and WE Oates, Eds.). Heath-Lexington, Lexington, Mass.
Frees, EW. (1995). Assessing Cross-sectional Correlations in Panel Data. Journal of Econometrics 69: 393-414.
Friedman, M. 1937. The Use of Ranks to Avoid the Assumption of Normality Implicit in the Analysis of Variance. Journal of the American Statistical Association 32: 675-701.
Fuest, C., Huber, B., & Mintz, J. (2005). Capital Mobility and Tax Competition. Foundations and Trends® in Microeconomics, 1(1), 1-62.
Granger, C. W. J. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
Hartwig, J. (2009). A panel Granger-causality test of endogenous vs. exogenous growth.
Hoyos, R. E., & Sarafidis, V. (2006). Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models. The stata journal, 6(4), 482-496.
Jhingan, M. L. (2004). Money, Banking, International Trade and Public Finance. 7th edition. Vrinda Publication (P) Ltd, New Delhi.
Oates, W. E. (1972). Fiscal federalism. Books.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2015). OECD/G20 Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Project. OECD Publishing.
Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Available at SSRN 572504.
Rendon-Garza, J. R. (2006). Global corporate tax competition for export-oriented foreign direct investment. Georgia State University.
Tiebout, C. M. (1956). A pure theory of local expenditures. Journal of political economy, 64(5), 416-424.
Urbain, J. P., & Westerlund, J. (2006). Spurious regression in nonstationary panels with cross-unit cointegration. METEOR, Maastricht research school of Economics of TEchnology and ORganizations.
Wang, Z. Q. a. N. J. S. (1995). The determinants of foreign direct investment in transforming economies: Empirical evidence from Hungary and China‖, Review of World Economics, 131(2), 359-382.
Wei, S. J. (2000). How taxing is corruption on international investors?. Review of economics and statistics, 82(1), 1-11.
Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69, 709-748
White, M. J. (1975). Firm location in a zoned metropolitan area. Fiscal zoning and land use controls, 175-202.
Wilson, J. D. (1999). Theories of tax competition. National tax journal, 52(2), 269-304.
Zucman, G. (2014). Taxing across borders: Tracking personal wealth and corporate profits. Journal of economic perspectives, 28(4), 121-48.